As an important part of the national economy, the future trend of the real estate industry has attracted much attention. After intensive regulation in 2018, under the multiple restrictions of purchase restriction, price restriction, loan restriction, quotation restriction and sale restriction, the real estate market gradually recedes from the previous high temperature and enters the rational development track.
On the morning of March 5, Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council made a report on the work of the government at the second session of the 13th National People's Congress. The report outlines the development trend of the real estate market in 2019 and in the future through the key words of "real estate tax", "new urbanization", "shantytown transformation" and "mass housing problem".
Song Ding, deputy director of China Urban Economic Expert Committee, said that this year's government work report pays more attention to people's livelihood. It mentions solving the housing problem of the masses, fulfilling the main responsibility of the city, reforming and perfecting the housing market system and guarantee system, promoting the steady and healthy development of the real estate market, and continuing to promote guaranteed housing. Housing construction and urban shantytowns transformation, guarantee the basic living needs of the disadvantaged groups, etc. From the policy level, the real estate policy will not be so strict, will be based on the city.
Deeply Promoting New Urbanization
In this year's report on the work of the government, it was mentioned that "new urbanization should be further promoted".
In this regard, Nie Meisheng, founding president of Quanlian Real Estate Chamber of Commerce, believes that the original urbanization is basically to build new houses, or that developers play an important role in promoting the process of urbanization in China. From the perspective of new towns and new buildings, more interventions are made, such as Wangjing New Town, Huilongguan, Tiantongyuan, etc. The way of doing this is to first dry up the house infrastructure and then move in the talents. It is a process of first having things and then having people. Some satellite cities and foreign countries have done this. In fact, it is a process of constantly enclosing and expanding the territory.
The development mentioned in the report is a growth of urban connotation, so it is called new urbanization. New urbanization is not the expansion of the territory, but the renewal of the city, including the upgrading of the old urban districts. In fact, it gives a new content to urbanization, and considers urbanization more from the perspective of people.
Zhang Dawei, chief real estate analyst of Central Plains, said that at the end of 2018, the urbanization rate of the permanent population and the household registration population was 59.58% and 43.37%, respectively, which were 1.06 and 1.02 percentage points higher than the previous year. It is very close to the target of "National New Urbanization Planning (2014-2020)" that by 2020, the urbanization rate of permanent population will reach about 60%, and that of registered population will reach about 45%. In the next two years, China's urbanization will continue to accelerate.
Development of Urban Agglomeration with Central Cities
The report on the work of the government clearly points out that "the development of the central urban agglomeration should be adhered to".
Yan Yuejin, director of research at the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, believes that there are two meanings. First, the development of central cities and urban agglomerations is similar to the concept of "core and circle". It is expected that there will be more opportunities for the development of central cities, especially some central cities in the Midwest, which will have better development orientation. Secondly, it is expected that the small and medium-sized cities in the following urban agglomerations will have better development opportunities, which is an important direction of the development of the real estate market, especially in cities like Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Xi'an, Shenyang and other cities, the development opportunities of the surrounding small and medium-sized cities will rise significantly.
According to Zhang Dawei's analysis, the trend of economic development and urban development is bound to be the development of metropolitan area. From the perspective of real estate, in the past three years, these regions have established a preliminary real estate regulation and coordination mechanism. The typical Beijing and surrounding Beijing have basically realized the real estate regulation and control coordination. In the future, the core areas of the real estate market development will inevitably be these hot cities. In addition, the core urban circles and urban agglomerations around these cities are also the core areas of economic development and population inflow.
Zhang Hongwei, Director of the Center for Consulting and Research on the same Policy, pointed out that from the perspective of real estate, some resources, population, education and industries will also gather in the central cities. Developing enterprises will still focus on the national and regional central cities, in order to create more achievements for enterprises; on the other hand, once the core is checked. After the layout and status of the heart cities have been confirmed, such as Shanghai, Nanjing, Kunshan and Jiashan around Shanghai, Ma'anshan and Chuzhou around Nanjing, the infrastructure and industrial resources of these cities will also be linked.
Continue to emphasize household policy
The government work report clearly pointed out that "we should do a good job in transferring population from agriculture to settle down, and promote basic public services in cities and towns to cover the permanent population."
Yan Yuejin believes that the policy of introducing and settling down talents is the most controversial content in the two years'policy regulation. In this policy, it is mentioned that we should do a good job in the policy of transferring population to settle down in agriculture, which is actually to achieve the development goal of urbanization in 2020. As a matter of fact, this work has been done all over the world recently, which will help to reduce the threshold of population importation and accelerate the process of democratization. Similar settlement policies are expected to generate a new wave of dividends, and the consumer demand for home purchases driven by such policies is expected to continue to rise in 2019. In the next two years, China's urbanization will continue to accelerate.
Zhang Dawei said that the reform of the household registration system has landed. All 31 provinces (districts, cities) and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps have issued plans or opinions for the reform of the household registration system. Most cities have relaxed the restrictions on household registration. Many small and medium-sized cities have basically achieved zero threshold for household registration, and the institutional channels for the urbanization of agricultural transfer population have been opened.
Solving the Housing Problem for the Masses