Summary and Prospect of 2018 Real Estate Market

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Summary and Prospect of 2018 Real Estate Market

Release date:2019-08-06 Author: Click:

In 2018, the regulation policy changed from tightening to loosening, and the central regulation changed in three stages: the two sessions in March reiterated that "housing does not stir-fry", the Politburo meeting at the end of July "resolutely curb the rise of housing prices", and the Ministry of Housing and Construction in August demanded "stable land prices, stable housing prices, stable expectations". Local policy level changes in two stages: the first three quarters adhere to the target of regulation and control is unshakable, the intensity is not relaxed, involving the four-limit policy continued high pressure, rectify the market order, raise the interest rate of housing loans, etc. In the fourth quarter, there are signs of a slight loosening of regulation and control policy, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Nanning and other parts of the city partial relaxation of price limits, multi-city housing downgrade. Heze has fired a shot at deregulation in 2018 when lending rates have risen. Looking ahead, it is expected that the regulatory policy will be substantially shifted and a new wave of deregulation will come in 2019. Nevertheless, the policy keynote of not stirring up housing and implementing policy according to the city remains unchanged, and the main theme of the three or four-tier cities'de-inventory is still the main theme.

Summary of 2018

First, the three-stage change of the central government's regulation: no speculation in housing, resolutely curb the rise of housing prices, stabilize land prices, stabilize housing prices and stabilize expectations

In March, the two sessions reiterated the main tone of the policy of "no speculation in housing". The government work reports of the two sessions have made a lot of comments on the real estate market, and the main tone of the regulation policy continues to adhere to the principle of "no speculation in housing". On the one hand, to support the demand for private housing, second-tier cities such as Nanjing and Xi'an have lowered the threshold in order to support the demand for talent housing. On the other hand, we should strengthen risk internal control of financial institutions and focus on curbing the demand for investment and speculative house purchasing. With the further standardization of personal housing loans, the situation of leveraged housing purchase will be unsustainable. The upsurge of housing purchase in the third and fourth-tier cities will return to rationality more quickly. Among them, the real estate tax legislation triggered a heated debate in the market, and from the actual progress, at least in the short term, the real estate tax landing is hopeless.

At the end of July, the Politburo meeting pointed directly at the rise of house prices, and the wording changed from "curbing the excessive rise of house prices" to "resolutely curbing the rise of house prices". Specific means of regulation and control are still to adhere to the city-based policy, promote the balance of supply and demand, guide expectations reasonably, and rectify market order. We believe that the main tone of the regulatory policy remains unchanged. In the future, all regulatory policies will focus on the orientation of "no speculation in housing" and "no withdrawal in the medium and long term" of the "Four Limits" policy. Hot cities will "check leaks and fill vacancies", strictly plug loopholes in policy supervision, focus on suppressing investment and speculative demand, and maintain the expectation of rising house prices. The major difference of this round of regulation and control policy lies in that many ministries and commissions perform their duties and cooperate with each other in order to improve the pertinence and effectiveness of the regulation and control policy. For example, at the end of June, seven ministries and commissions jointly launched a special campaign to deal with the chaos in the property market in 30 cities. At the end of July, the Ministry of Housing and Construction announced a blacklist of 20 illegal and illegal housing enterprises and intermediaries, pointing directly to the chaos in the real estate market such as boosting house prices, "black intermediaries", selling with a vendor and false propaganda.

In August, the Ministry of Housing and Construction asked local governments to implement the main responsibility of stabilizing land prices, house prices and expectations. The Symposium of the Ministry of Housing and Construction clearly put forward two requirements: first, to speed up the formulation of housing development plans, adjust the structure of housing and land supply, and vigorously develop the housing rental market. Secondly, we should firmly curb speculation and speculation in real estate, introduce accountability mechanism, and firmly hold accountable for cities that are weak in work, volatile in the market and fail to achieve regulatory objectives.  Subsequently, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Fujian and other provinces and cities have responded, rectifying the real estate market chaos, cracking down on speculative speculation and other acts.

At the end of October, the Politburo meeting made no mention of real estate, and the central policy level entered an empty window. The main reason lies in the remarkable effect of the pre-regulation policy, the situation of excessive housing price rise has been basically curbed, the rate of housing price increase in most cities tends to be flat, and some cities take the lead in downward adjustment of housing prices. We believe that the content of the regulatory policy will remain basically unchanged and will continue to focus on the orientation of "no speculation in housing". In view of the obvious cooling characteristics of the current real estate market, there is no need to regulate it in the short term. In the future, the central policy level will need to combine the economic working conference at the end of 2018 and the two sessions at the beginning of 2019.

At the end of the year, the Central Economic Work Conference continued to adhere to the orientation of "no speculation in housing" and consolidated the main responsibility of the urban government by implementing urban policies and classifying guidance. We believe that the policy keynote of housing non-speculation and City-based policy will remain unchanged. While supporting the residents'reasonable housing demand, we will focus on suppressing investment and speculative demand and alleviating the pressure of rising house prices in hot cities. In addition, the policy command power will be transferred from the central government to the local government. Cities can adjust the future policy direction according to the actual situation of the market. In connection with the recent lifting of restrictions on sales in Heze, a shot of deregulation was fired in 2018, which indicates that the current round of regulation policy will be substantially shifted, and more cities will follow up the deregulation. Especially in those cities with high inventory pressure, the possibility of deregulation is greater.

2. Local governments have undergone two stages of change: adhering to the goal of regulation and control, not relaxing, and relaxing price and sales restrictions in some cities.

Local policy level shows two stages of change: the main tone of policy in the first three quarters still adheres to the unshakable goal of regulation and control, the strength is not slack, involving the sustained efforts of the four-limit policy, the regulation of market order in many provinces and municipalities, and so on. In the fourth quarter, there seems to be a loosening of the regulation policy. Some cities have partly relaxed price and sales restrictions.

1. The Four-Limit Policy is still being implemented tightly. Limitations on purchase, sale and price are constantly expanding. Some provinces and municipalities increase their quotas and limit their loans.


2. Follow-up of multi-provinces and municipalities and joint efforts of multi-departments to rectify the order of the real estate market


3. From breaking through the restriction of purchasing by "settling down first", to relaxing the restriction in part, to canceling the restriction explicitly.

In the first half of the year, while the policy of regulation and control continued to be under high pressure, most cities were in a variety of situations.

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